IEA cuts oil demand growth forecast, keeps surplus

Latest market newsIEA cuts oil demand growth forecast, keeps surplusMarket: Crude oil12/02/26The IEA today cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2026, but its estimate of a substantial supply surplus remains.In its February Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency said it sees demand increasing by 850,000 b/d this year, lower than the 930,000 b/d it forecast in its January OMR, because a rally in prices in the first few weeks of the year will have "weighed on growth prospects."The front-month Ice Brent price rose by $10/bl in January and closed above $70/bl for the first time since July 2025, pushed higher by a combination of supply outages and escalated tensions between the US and Iran.The IEA's new demand growth forecast puts overall demand in 2026 at 104.87mn b/d. Demand will peak in the fourth quarter at above 106mn b/d, the agency said. Highlighting how these estimates are subject to change, the IEA's first take on 2026 demand growth, made in April 2025, was for 690,000 b/d.Its estimates continue to diverge wildly from those made by Opec's research unit, which this week forecast oil demand will grow by 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d in 2026.The IEA's 2026 supply forecast is for growth of 2.4mn b/d to 108.56mn b/d, assuming Opec+ maintains its current production plan. This results in a supply surplus of 3.7mn b/d, the same as in its January OMR.The IEA said its December data show a 37mn bl rise in global oil inventories, taking stockbuilds in 2025 to "an extraordinary" 477mn bl, or 1.3mn b/d. It said this level was last seen in the pandemic year of 2020. "As global refinery activity declines seasonally from an all-time high reached in December, and oil supply recovers from recent outages, it remains to be seen when surplus barrels finally move ashore in the Atlantic Basin," it said.By Ben WinkleyShareRelated news postsArgus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.News12/02/26Dangote CDU restarts, test runs on RFCC due next weekDangote CDU restarts, test runs on RFCC due next weekLondon, 12 February (Argus) — The Dangote refinery's 650,000 b/d crude distillation unit (CDU) in Nigeria is operating again after maintenance, while the gasoline-producing residual fluid catalytic cracker (RFCC) is expected to begin test runs next week ahead of restarting, chief executive David Bird said. The CDU received 170,000 bl of crude on 8 February, followed by 450,000 bl on 9 February and 537,000 bl on 10 February, according to industry sources and a source at the refinery. Bird said this week that the CDU was "operating steadily at the full nameplate capacity of 650,000 b/d". The highest throughput achieved as of 20 January was 570,000 b/d, according to an internal company report seen by Argus at the time. The CDU was offline for around two weeks from 24 January for maintenance. Dangote imported intermediate products during the outage to maintain supply to customers. Bird's reference to the 650,000 b/d nameplate figure suggests that planned de-bottlenecking work — expected to lift capacity to 700,000 b/d — has not yet been completed. The RFCC, which has been offline since December, is scheduled to begin "performance test runs" next week, Bird said. The naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit and catalytic reformer — which Dangote groups together as the "motor spirit block" — were running this week but had not yet reached full capacity following January maintenance, an industry source told Argus . Dangote told Argus on 11 February that "full restoration and optimisation" of the motor spirit block had been achieved. By Adeibyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.Find out moreNewsPBF bullish on rising crude supplies, Venezuela12/02/26News12/02/26PBF bullish on rising crude supplies, VenezuelaHouston, 12 February (Argus) — US independent refiner PBF Energy is benefiting from rising medium and heavy crude supplies and expects the trend to continue as more Venezuelan crude comes to the market, the company said today. Sour crude differentials began widening in the middle of 2025 which carried through the fourth quarter with growing supplies, including from the Opec+ group of countries, chief executive Matthew Lucey said in an earnings call. The recent development of more Venezuelan crude entering the open market is an additional tailwind for US refiners and PBF in particular as the company can run up to 60pc of its system with heavy sour crude, he said. More Venezuelan heavy sour is hitting the global market after trading firms Trafigura and Vitol were approved by the US government to market unsanctioned Venezuelan oil following the US capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. More recently, the US lifted sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports, with caveats prohibiting sales to Cuba, business deals involving many Chinese companies and oil-for-debt arrangements. "The impact to the US refining system with those sanctions being lifted is instantaneous," Lucey said, while also acknowledging that "there will be many, many years of investment and potential growth in Venezuela." Fellow US independent refiner Valero said last month that it has ramped up purchases of Venezuelan crude and expects it to be a major heavy feedstock this quarter. Two other large US refiners, Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum, said last week that they had recently purchased Venezuelan crude. US major Chevron, which has been operating in Venezuela with state-owned PdV under a special waiver from US sanctions, is also planning to run more Venezuelan crude in its US refineries. Chevron currently produces about 250,000 b/d in Venezuela through its joint ventures, but the company has said that it could grow this by 50pc over the next 18-24 months. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.NewsUS House votes to lift Trump's Canada tariffs11/02/26News11/02/26US House votes to lift Trump's Canada tariffsWashington, 11 February (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Wednesday took the symbolic step of voting to overturn President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada. The House voted 219-211 in favor of a resolution terminating the national emergency Trump proclaimed in February 2025 to justify his tariff actions against Canada. The Senate last year passed two separate resolutions voting to overturn Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada and from Brazil. Trump has vowed to veto the House resolution and the vote margin on Wednesday is not sufficient to overturn his veto. Wednesday's vote tally included six Republicans, who defied Trump's threats to run primary candidates against them if they voted to challenge his tariff authority. "Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!", Trump posted shortly before the House vote. Trump cited a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify his tariff actions last year. The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether Trump's use of IEEPA is legal. The administration's lawyers told the Supreme Court last year that Congress could have voted, but did not, to terminate the economic emergencies declared by Trump to justify his tariffs. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.NewsVenezuelan oil heads to Italy, Spain, Israel: Update 211/02/26News11/02/26Venezuelan oil heads to Italy, Spain, Israel: Update 2Adds Israel as destination in paragraph 3 Barcelona, 11 February (Argus) — Three cargoes of Venezuelan crude heading across the Atlantic are signalling for Sarroch in Italy, Cartagena and Bilbao in Spain, and Israel, according to Argus tracking. Suezmax Poliegos updated its destination overnight to trading firm Vitol's 300,000 b/d Sarroch refinery in Italy, where it is scheduled to arrive on 17 February. It is carrying around 1mn bl of Venezuelan crude, loaded at the country's Jose terminal. People with knowledge of the deal told Argus that Israel's Bazan will take part of this cargo, around 200,000 bl, for production of bitumen at its 197,000 b/d Haifa refinery. Bazan was approached for comment. Vitol has been approved by the US government to market Venezuelan crude. Sarroch was the most recent Mediterranean destination for Venezuela crude, in March-April 2025 , ahead of tighter US sanctions on Caracas that halted supplies. Another 1mn bl on Suezmax Nissos Koufonissi updated its destination and is heading for the southeastern Spanish port of Cartagena, where Repsol operates a 220,000 b/d refinery. It is slated to arrive on 19 February. Suezmax Folegandros was already signalling arrival on 15 February at the Spanish Atlantic port of Bilbao, where integrated Repsol has a 220,000 b/d refinery. Repsol would not comment on the matter. According to workers connected to the refinery, the cargo is a spot purchase and not part of a crude-for-debt swap scheme that Repsol ran with Venezuela's state-owned PdV. Under that scheme Spain received 55,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude in 2024, all of which went to Repsol's refineries at Bilbao, Cartagena and La Coruna. This fell to 15,000 b/d last year, after sanctions tightened. None of the tankers' destinations are confirmed, and they could yet divert. By Adam Porter, Jonathan Gleave and Isabella Reimi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.NewsOpec sticks to oil demand forecasts11/02/26News11/02/26Opec sticks to oil demand forecastsLondon, 11 February (Argus) — Opec has kept its oil demand growth projections for 2026 and 2027 unchanged. In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), Opec forecasts oil demand to grow by 1.38mn b/d to 106.52mn b/d in 2026 and by 1.34mn b/d to 107.86mn b/d in 2027. Opec said "healthy oil demand growth" is being supported by monetary policy easing by most major central banks last year. Opec also kept its supply forecasts unchanged. It sees non-Opec supply growing by 630,000 b/d to 54.78mn b/d in 2026 and by 610,000 b/d to 55.39mn b/d in 2027. Opec+ crude output — including Mexico — fell by 439,000 b/d to 42.448mn b/d in January, led by a steep output drop in Kazakhstan, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus . Opec estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 43mn b/d in 2026 and 43.6mn b/d in 2027. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . 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